This strategy is known as the Martingale strategy. In this document, I will explain how it works mathematically and discuss whether or not it is advisable to use it. You may be familiar with Roulette, having seen it in movies or even played it yourself. It is a highly popular casino game.
And the reason for it is well-founded: punters love it because it’s easy to play and the house edge is reasonably small. Casinos accept this relatively small edge because they know it’s a luck-based game, making their edge easily quantifiable.
How it works is that you can bet on colors, categories of numbers (like odds or evens, high or low), a group of numbers (like 1, 2, 3), or individual numbers (like 5). The numbers are labeled from 1 to 36, with 18 of them being red and 18 black. Therefore, the odds for these 50 bets are simply two.
How To Win A 50 Dollar Wager
If you bet fifty dollars, you can get a return of one hundred where you profit fifty dollars, or you just lose your fifty dollars. The odds reflect how likely you are to win. So if you bet on individual numbers, like betting on 5, then your odds would be 36. This sounds pretty fair, right? Well, not quite. There’s one more number, the 37th number, and that is the number zero.
And if it lands on zero, no bet, whether it was placed on red, black, or any of the numbers between 1 to 36, inclusive. Then that bet would just naturally lose, unless your bet was actually on the number zero itself. This is how the house or the casino has an edge. Let’s say you bet on red where the odds are too, or there’s a one-to-one payout.
Now, instead of a 50 chance of winning, assuming there are only 36 numbers, there’s only 18 red numbers and 19 non-red numbers, in this case, with the extra zero. And therefore, your chances of winning are now 18, over 37 or 48.6 percent. This doesn’t seem very fair. So, how can we use Martingale to manipulate the statistics and increase our chances of winning.
Martingale Strategy: How To Start Using Roulette To Win Your First Bet
Martingale is a strategy of sizing up in a methodical manner, doubling down after a losing bet, and stopping after you’ve hit a win. Let’s see how it works with. An example. Say I have 150 dollars from the rest of my paycheck, and I’m taking 150 to the casino to bet on Roulette to follow the Martingale strategy. For my first bet, I’ll bet 10 on one of those roughly 50 events.
For example, betting on red, betting on black, betting on high numbers, betting on even numbers like that. Now, the dollar amount is important, 10 is exactly 1 over 15 of my entire bankroll, because my entire bankroll is one hundred and fifty dollars. So, I’ll be betting ten dollars. If I started off with a bankroll of three hundred dollars, then I would start off with a bet of twenty dollars betting.
This proportion is important as it allows us to sustain a four-step martingale process, which is what actually gets us the 93 chance of winning. So, for my first bet, 18 of the 37 possible outcomes are red, which is what will make me win my bet. And that equates to an 18 divided by 37, which is a 48.6 chance of a win.
How To Lose Your First Bet
Remember, the total number on a roulette wheel is not 50, but rather 18 red numbers, 18 black numbers, and one extra zero square representing the house edge. The remaining outcome, with a 19 over 37 chance (or 51.4 percent), would result in a loss of our bet. If the first bet is a win, the martingale strategy advises us to stop. With a ten dollar bet, we would profit ten dollars and cash out.
Now, what if we lose the first bet? No problem, we can simply double down on the next bet. This time, we will wager 20 dollars, twice as much as before. Again, we can choose any event with an 18 over 37 chance of occurring.
For instance, we can bet on red again or select another outcome, such as low numbers (1 to 18), as there is no correlation between the first and second events. However, for simplicity, let’s assume we continue to bet on red. There is a 48.6 percent chance of winning this time. If that happens, the martingale strategy will advise us to stop.
20 Minus 10 Losses From This Bet
Therefore, from this $20 bet, we will make a $20 profit. However, we incurred a $10 loss from our first bet. So, our net profit is $20 minus $10, or again, $10. Although there is a 51.4 percent chance of a loss, it does not hit red or whatever we chose to bet on. In this case, we have lost two rounds, but there’s no need to worry.
We will double down once more, this time betting twice the amount we bet before. So, instead of $20, we will bet $40. Once again, there is a 48.6 percent chance of winning if that happens. According to the mining girl strategy, we should stop. Consequently, we make a $40 profit from this bet, which covers our $20 loss from the previous bet and the $10 loss from the bet before that.
Therefore, our net profit is once again $40 minus $20 minus $10, which is $10 once more. If there is a loss, which has a 51.4 percent chance, we will cash out. In that case, there would be no problem in doubling down once more with the remaining $80.
How To Make Money Loss, Save Money, Save Money, Save Money
If we hit the 48.6% chance of winning, we make a profit of eighty dollars. This covers the losses of forty dollars, twenty dollars, and ten dollars from the previous bets, leaving us with a net profit of ten dollars.
Therefore, the only situation where we lose money is if we lose four of these bets in a row. The probability of this happening is 51.4% raised to the power of four, which is only a 6.95% chance of occurring. This means that the probability of us winning is 1 minus this number, which is 93.05%.
With a 93.05% chance of winning, you can be confident in leaving the casino with a win most of the time. However, I would not recommend this strategy. While it may seem promising, there is another layer of mathematics behind it that proves it to be unsuccessful. In the event that we do lose, we don’t just lose ten dollars, but instead, we get wiped out entirely.
How Much Expected Value Can You Expect If You Do This In The Long Run
After losing ten dollars, twenty dollars, forty dollars, and eighty dollars, resulting in a net loss of one hundred and fifty dollars, we can calculate the expected value to determine how much value we can expect from this bet in the long run. Our expected value is calculated as 93 times 10 (positive) minus 6.95 times 150 dollars (negative).
Unfortunately, the resulting expected value is negative, indicating that this bet is not expected to be profitable in the long run. This demonstrates that we are unable to overcome the casino house edge. Instead, we have only increased our chances of winning artificially, while leaving ourselves vulnerable to significant potential losses.
It’s very similar to betting on, for example, nadal to be a round one opponent in the French open, where the chances of winning are very high, but you’d make a very small amount compared to how much you can actually lose. So, what can you actually do to beat the casino?
How To Beat The Casino
If you are exceptionally intelligent, you might consider emulating mathematicians who utilize physics to predict the trajectory of a ball and calculate its likely landing spot on the Roulette table immediately after release. Alternatively, you could follow in the footsteps of Phil Ivey, one of the top poker players, who used edge sorting to detect subtle variations on the back of playing cards and gain an advantage.
However, it is crucial to consider the risk involved. Although Phil Ivey had initially achieved significant winnings, he eventually faced a ban and legal action, resulting in the repayment of his earnings. It is important to note that attempting to beat the casino is not a viable strategy.